Predictive vs. Explanatory Models

Before discussing specific topics, I want to be clear about the difference between predictive and explanatory models.

• Predictive models predict outcomes. 
• Explanatory models both predict outcomes and define the causal relationships or processes that underly those predictions. They explain why things happened as they do.

Often times the predictive model does appear to explain the predicted outcome. It may suggest a possible causal relationship. However, suggestion of a causal relationship is just that, a suggestion.

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