Firearm Deaths and the Relationship to Firearm Ownership in the United States 1999 to 2016

For those readers who live outside of the US and who follow US controversies, probably one of the most mysterious and mystifying controversies is the US focus on firearms and their value. For better or for worse, the US Supreme Court has interpreted that the Second Amendment of the Constitution states that firearm ownership is an individual right. The entire reason for existence of organizations such as the National Rifle Association (NRA) is to insure that firearm ownership be as widespread as possible.

Having said that, I'm going to get into the politics of firearms and firearm ownership. What I shall do is present the results of the analysis of data that I have collected regarding firearm deaths from 1999 to 2016. The data comes from the CDC-Wonder and from Statista.com. The data was categorized by state and the analysis was on normed data (rates and percentages, not on raw numbers).

Death by Firearm

In the United States firearm deaths fall by in large into two categories: 1) Suicides and 2) Homicides. The CDC has three additional categories: Unintentional, Undetermined and Legal Intervention/Operations of War. Firearm deaths falling into these three categories are negligible.

The overall suicide rate by firearm in the United States is 7.4 per 100,000 population. It ranges from a high of 14.0 per 100,000 (Wyoming) and a low of 1.8 per 100,000 (Massachusetts). Percent of overall suicides by firearm is 52.2%. Ranges from a high of 70.7% (Mississippi) to a low of 20.4% (Hawaii).

The overall homicide rate by firearm in the United States is 3.3 per 100,000 population. Ranges from a high of 9.8 per 100,000 (Louisiana) to a low of 0.6 per 100,000 (New Hampshire). Percent of homicides by firearm overall is 48.3%. Ranges from a high of 74.8% (Alabama) to a low of 30.5% (South Dakota).

Suicides and Homicides by Firearm: Relationship to Household Firearm Ownership

From Statista.com I was able to find by state the percent of households that own one or more guns. I was interested to determine whether or not suicides and homicides have any relationship to firearm ownership or in this case, the percentage of households in a state that own one or more firearms. The estimated per capita firearm ownership in the US is about 91%. Meaning, for every 10 people there are 9 firearms. And this does not vary widely from state to state. Firearm ownership in the US tends to be concentrated in a relatively few number of households. 

In the US the average number of households that own one or more guns is 37.6%. Ranges from a high of 57.9% (Wyoming) and a low 6.7% (Hawaii).

Relationship of Household Firearm Ownership to Suicides

I decided to examine whether or not there was a relationship between these two measures in two ways. First, determining whether there is a correlation between the two factors and second, dividing the states into two equal groups, one where the percentage of household ownership was above the median and where the percentage of household ownership was below the median and determine whether there was a significant difference in the suicide rates.

Correlations

The calculated correlation: (Pearson's r)

• Between all suicides no matter how performed (crude rate by state) and percent of households that own 1+ firearms: .67 (p < .05).
• Between crude rate (by state) of firearm suicides and percent of households that own 1+ firearms: .84 (p < .05)

People are more likely to complete a suicide attempt when they're part of a household that owns a firearm. And when that suicide is carried out by a firearm, there's even a stronger relationship between household ownership and the rate of suicide.

High and Low Household Ownership

Dividing the states into two groups of high and low household firearm ownership, I found the following

• Low household ownership suicide rate: 5.8 per 100,000.
• High household ownership suicide rate: 9.0 per 100,000
• t test significant (p < .05)

Therefore, states with a higher percentage of households that own firearms have a significantly higher rate of suicide.

Relationship of Household Firearm Ownership to Homicides

As a preview, the relationship between firearm ownership and homicides differs from what I found with suicides. I examined the data the same way as I did with the suicides and I found no relationship. 

Here are my findings ...

• Homicide rate by household ownership: Correlation, .03 (Non significant)
• High and low rates of household ownership:
• High group, 3.5 per 100,000
• Low group, 3.2 per 100,000 
• t test (non significant)

Conclusions

1. Having a gun in your household may be bad for your health. Not by the hand of another, but by your own hand. 
2. Homicides and firearms: Whether you live in a high percentage ownership state or a low ownership state, your chances of being a homicide statistic by way of a firearm are about same. 

The US has 87th highest homicide rate (out of 219) in the world. We have the 48th highest suicide rate (but we are lower than Sweden).

Comments?

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